The ICE surge shook Minnesota’s job market — but by how much?


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An economist says a research report tying Operation Metro Surge to an estimated 32,000 lost jobs in Minnesota may point in the right direction but the exact number is less certain.

A report from the Minnesota Budget Project and the Immigration Research Initiative estimated the peak of the federal ICE surge from December 2025 through February cost the state 32,000 jobs. Researchers based that figure on a national study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and adapted it to Minnesota, said University of St. Thomas Associate Professor of Economics Tyler Schipper.

“I like the term fuzzier,” said Schipper.

Schipper, who was not involved with the project, said he trusts the larger national study because it averages data from several states during several time periods.

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