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Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 and traditionally peaks on or around Sept. 10.
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 and traditionally peaks on or around Sept. 10.
The agency initially predicted between eight and 14 named storms, with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher; three to six of those storms becoming hurricanes; and one to three of those hurricanes becoming major. NOAA said it had roughly 70% confidence in that forecast when it was released in May.
However, after nearly two months of below-average activity, NOAA updated its forecast.
The agency now predicts between seven and 13 storms, with two to six of those becoming hurricanes, and zero to two of those hurricanes are expected to become major.
As of Aug. 10, only two named tropical storms have formed so far this season: Arthur and Bertha. Both storms formed in the Gulf.
NOAA predicts a 75% chance of below-normal hurricane season activity, which is well above the agency's initial prediction of a 55% chance of a below-normal activity season in May.
Meteorologists pointed to a trend toward El Niño, which is helping keep Atlantic waters slightly cooler while warming the Pacific. Another major factor has been widespread Saharan dust, which has continued to suppress tropical activity.
Those same conditions are expected to keep the Atlantic quiet in the short term.
But, while the overall storm count has been lowered, the season still has several weeks to go before reaching its most active period.
The National Hurricane Center said Saturday that it was monitoring tropical disturbances in the Atlantic that had a low to moderate chance of developing into a storm.
