Ground beef up 81% since 2020: What FOX 9's Minnesota grocery price tracking found

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - For the first time since FOX 9 started comparing grocery prices in 2020, costs have more or less leveled as we went back through the aisles to break down what's changed and how shoppers can keep more money in their wallets.

Prices then and now

By the numbers:

FOX 9 has been tracking grocery prices since 2020, and the latest comparison shows a mixed but cautiously hopeful picture. Grocery prices have climbed 4% to 5% overall since 2024, according to the USDA. FOX 9's unscientific survey found some variance depending on the store — prices were up 7% at the New Hope Hy-Vee, up 3% at Plymouth Target, and actually down 2% at Cub, likely based on the variety of items purchased at each location.

That stabilization was predicted two years ago by a marketing professor FOX 9 interviewed at the time.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the next time someone did this you might see certain ones that go down," said Joseph Redden in 2024.

What we know:

Meats and some produce are among the biggest continuing price climbers. A pound of lean ground beef now costs $8.99 at the Hy-Vee — up a dollar since 2024 and up 81% from FOX 9's first shopping trip in 2020.

Oil prices play a role, according to University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management marketing professor Akshay Rao, because they drive up the cost of farming and transportation. But tariffs may be an even bigger factor, pushing up the price of produce often grown in other countries as well as the cost of metal. Rao noted that grocery shoppers may not feel the pinch the same way they would with a big-ticket purchase.

"If you're buying a consumer durable, like a television set or an automobile, you're going to be shopping more on price than if you're buying Campbell's soup," said Rao.

Campbell's cream of mushroom soup and other canned soups saw sizable price hikes over 2024 at Cub. Other canned items followed suit, including Target's shaving gel and canned Diet Cokes — though two-liter bottles of Diet Coke went up far less. Dairy products, on the other hand, had some of the biggest price drops, making them a rare example of stores actually adjusting prices downward.

What they're saying:

Rao says grocery companies spend considerable time thinking about how consumers will react to price changes.

"Folks in the corporate world spend a lot of time worrying about how is the consumer going to react to this particular price, this particular change, this particular price level," said Rao.

Supply and demand are a big part of pricing, along with external factors like tariffs, gas prices, fertilizer and labor costs. But a company's desired profit margin is also a driver — and Rao says stores will take advantage of shoppers who aren't paying close attention.

"It turns out, based on lots of really good research, that all consumers don't pay that much attention to price," said Rao.

Dr. Rao says one survey found about half of all shoppers can't even say what they paid for something they just put in their cart — even when given a multiple choice quiz.

"Particularly for items that are purchased in a basket. People tend to be brand loyal or price sensitive, or, and this is the interesting thing, they tend to be deal prone," said Rao.

How shoppers are responding

As the price of each basket FOX 9 bought went up by $10 to $20 every two years, shoppers started feeling it and looking for ways to save.

"We're seeing this frugality syndrome where people are being very cautious about how to spend because everything is going up in price, from rent to utilities to gas," said Rao.

What you can do:

There are several ways to keep your grocery bill lower. Trying generic products is one option — taste tests can help you figure out whether you can even tell the difference. Looking for substitutions is another strategy, like choosing lower-priced pork instead of beef or turkey instead of chicken. And if you have the time, shopping at different stores — especially when you can check the weekly flyer for deals — can make a real difference.

FOX 9 will also begin tracking six generic staples at several stores to see whether saving money simply comes down to where you shop. A full price spreadsheet is posted alongside the story at fox9.com.

What we don't know:

It remains unclear how much further tariffs and oil prices could push costs up in the months ahead, particularly for meat and produce. It is also not yet known how much variation shoppers will find between stores when FOX 9 begins tracking generic staples.

The Source: This story is based on FOX 9's ongoing grocery price comparison project, reporting by FOX 9's Corin Hoggard and on-camera interviews with University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management marketing professor Akshay Rao, as well as USDA grocery price data.